The Road to Becoming a Master Investor

It does provide some inspiration. I haven't had much time to speculate. From June to now, in less than half a year, I encountered a bear market as soon as I entered the market, which made me more cautious. Personally, I am not very optimistic about technical indicators. As a chaotic system, the stock price has the tendency to be susceptible to disturbance and traverse all possible states. Especially the shorter the time, the closer the winning rate is to 1:1. Under the current winning rate, superimposing handling fees will inevitably lead to losses in terms of mathematical expectations. At the practical level, I used backtrader to build a small backtesting system and tried various short-term or medium- and long-term strategies. I found that as long as a small change in the parameters can make the overall return from positive to negative. As a script, this is the case in an ideal state. Taking into account factors such as possible slippage in reality, humans are unreliable execution units, and the brain only likes to accept information that is beneficial to itself. The future investment income of retail investors can only be a superposition of endless changes in losses and gains. Based on the above reasons, when I look at technical indicators, I only look at the clearest and most understandable ones, because this is what the most people can see, and it involves the self-realization of people's expectations. Most people think this is a pressure level, so it most likely is. So I prefer to look at the boll line. At least the mean and variance of the k-line can be counted, and the standard deviation of the deviation can be seen at a glance, which may allow me to understand the behavior of retail funds in a statistical sense. It is best to use the hourly line, because the daily or weekly line is too long and can easily be affected by breaking news, causing the distribution to become skewed. After reading the novel from beginning to end, I found that my skills in monitoring financial behavior through technical indicators are still lacking. People are the main body that controls funds, so any behavior in the stock market is a game with others. Understanding the flow of funds is equivalent to having a pair of eyes. Not to mention hitting others, at least you can wave your hands to defend. But if it were me, I would definitely be tempted to build my own quantitative indicators and mathematical models, and it would take a lot of effort. Moreover, as a veteran who has been involved in the stock market for a long time, the author does not consider going abroad or not going abroad. He has a master's degree in economics and I feel that the author has very strong practical experience, but in some places it still gives me a feeling that it is too subjective. As a man in science and engineering, I really looked down on finance, but I couldn't resist the magic of the stock market that can turn ideas into cash quickly. I thought that after I finished my studies, I could get a master's degree in finance from abroad or something like that. After all, this novel is about stocks, so I suddenly thought about sharing my investment strategy and asking my husband to comment on it. First of all, please state that this strategy does not constitute any investment advice. Please read it based on your own understanding. At the same time, I am not a professional, and my financial knowledge and stock knowledge are only half-full. This strategy is only for sharing. My strategy is to source an epic leek from the up owner of station B, a good person who is about the same age as me. The core of his thinking can be seen in his video "Investment Essence Sharing Session". The main idea is: asset-heavy is about 5 times the valuation, asset-light is about 10 times, and then converted according to the growth rate. (It's very simple, I recommend watching his sharing video) I think his ideas and methods are good, and I have quantified them as a whole. The process after the transformation is as follows: 1: Change the annual income of the company in the discounted cash flow model to a constant C0, and divide C0 on both sides, and get P (enterprise value)/C0 on the left side. The expression on the left is actually similar to our commonly used PE (price-to-earnings ratio). At this time, the formula on the right can be simplified to 1+1/r by applying the series formula (r can be regarded as the return we claim, which is usually twice the risk-free interest rate). At this time PE = 1+1/r 2. At this time, we require an annualized rate of return of 6-8. Substituting into the formula, PE is obtained (13.5, 17.6). This set × 0.8 (As a safety margin, subjective value), we get our ideal PE (10.8, 14.08). 3. Check the company's recent dividends + total repurchases, find the latest dividends and repurchase rates, and multiply them by the ideal PE. Since it is unrealistic for companies to pay 100% dividends, and direct multiplication will cause the result to be too small, I used the common 50% dividend for liquor as a benchmark. For example, if a company only gives us 10% of its total revenue as dividend buyback, then the ideal PE of the company will be × (10%/50%) as a penalty. 4. There should not only be punishment, but also rewards. For example, this company took 90% of our money for reproduction. If it creates a growth rate, then we will give ×g (growth rate) as a reward. Those with high risk appetite can calculate the growth rate for many years in the future, while small ones can only calculate the growth rate for one year. 5. More risk calculation. For example, if the management makes you unhappy and you want to use equity to motivate you every day, then add another 0.8 Or something. It also combines industry research (to ensure dividends D and growth rate G), position management (my personal stocks do not exceed 30%, divided into 60% value positions and 40 speculative positions) This is roughly it. In fact, it is a refined + quantified version of the up master. There are also some problems. For example, after BYD formula conversion, I am willing to give about 200 under zero growth (I use Ebitda instead of C0, I think this indicator is closer to the company's real income). Judging from the market price trend, this value may be low (although I really think BYD is too expensive). There are also banks. My formula tells me: Why are banks so cheap? Give me a lot of money. However, the actual situation is that funds have been grouped in banks in the past few years and are at a high level. Ps: I always felt that I was benefited by this up owner, so I wanted to help others. Anyway, it was modified from his hands. If it were written elsewhere, no one would read it, so why not write it here? Those who can bear to read this novel will definitely want to learn from it.

This book goes from easy to difficult, from shallow to deep, and goes through many bull markets in the stock market, involving trading methods, frameworks, strategies, principles and insider information. There will also be daily reviews in the later period, which is a rare stock trading guide.

I have benefited a lot, thank the author for his selfless sharing.

Real boss, explain the cow! Today's class was great! It is difficult to realize this kind of knowledge on your own! Thanks

A sincere work by a master

It's good to read. The author's writing is very real and has profound insights into stocks. It's a good book worth reading.

Old Leek is here to report [laugh][laugh][laugh][laugh][laugh][laugh] Full of useful information

True deeply inspired

Thinking clearly and inspired

It is worth recommending for making evaluations and investment suggestions based on market conditions.